After registering a very high 68.0 for both the second and third quarters of 2015, the Learning Executive Confidence Index (LXCI) for the fourth quarter of 2015 dropped nearly four points to 64.3, suggesting that learning leaders' short-term expectations for the health of the learning function are down.
This is not surprising given that the Conference Board's CEO Confidence Index showed that confidence among chief executives dropped in the third and fourth quarters of 2015. The confidence of learning leaders tends to follow that of CEOs, meaning that the third quarter drop in CEO confidence predicted the fourth quarter's drop in learning leaders' confidence.
However, it is important to keep in mind that the Q4 2015 LXCI score is still slightly more than nine points higher than the historic low of 55.1 in 2009, and only 5.6 points below the historic high score of 69.9 in 2013.
The Q4 2015 score is lower than any in the first three quarters of 2015. During the first three quarters, the LXCI was very high, reaching 68.8 in Q1 2015. This was the second highest LXCI score ever recorded since the Association for Talent Development began calculating it in 2008. In Q2 and Q3 of 2015, it read 68.0. The current score is also lower than any in 2014, when it ranged from 65.7 to 68.2.
The LXCI is a composite score that takes into account four key indicators of how learning executives feel the learning function will change during the next six months. The key indicators are: ability to meet learning needs, impact on corporate performance, perception of the value of learning, and the availability of resources.
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