Change Saturation: Why Resilience Has to Come Before Transformation

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Leaders are racing to reinvent their businesses in the age of AI—rebuilding tech stacks, redrawing org charts, and rewriting hybrid-work rules. But in many organizations, the biggest barrier to change isn’t strategy. It’s capacity.

Leaders are racing to reinvent their businesses in the age of AI—rebuilding tech stacks, redrawing org charts, and rewriting hybrid-work rules. But in many organizations, the biggest barrier to change isn’t strategy. It’s capacity.

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When I ask executives what their people need most right now, the answer is usually not “help us plan the next transformation.” It’s “help us cope with the one we’re already living through.” That’s change saturation: the point where the volume and speed of change outstrip employees’ psychological reserves.

When I ask executives what their people need most right now, the answer is usually not “help us plan the next transformation.” It’s “help us cope with the one we’re already living through.” That’s change saturation: the point where the volume and speed of change outstrip employees’ psychological reserves.

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The data is blunt. LinkedIn research reports that 64 percent of professionals feel overwhelmed by how quickly work is changing, and 68 percent say they need more support than ever.Meanwhile, Gartner reports the average employee experienced only two enterprise-level changes in 2016. By 2022, that had increased 500 percent to 10 planned changes. And we expect that number has gotten even higher since then.

The data is blunt. LinkedIn research reports that 64 percent of professionals feel overwhelmed by how quickly work is changing, and 68 percent say they need more support than ever.Meanwhile, Gartner reports the average employee experienced only two enterprise-level changes in 2016. By 2022, that had increased 500 percent to 10 planned changes. And we expect that number has gotten even higher since then.

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The same Gartner study also showed that employees’ willingness to support enterprise change fell to 38 percent in 2022, down from 74 percent in 2016.

The same Gartner study also showed that employees’ willingness to support enterprise change fell to 38 percent in 2022, down from 74 percent in 2016.

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This is far more than a well-being issue. Change fatigue is a performance issue. When people are depleted, even well-designed initiatives slow down, go sideways, or quietly die. And that’s a big reason why MIT’s research showed that 95 percent of AI initiatives are failing.

This is far more than a well-being issue. Change fatigue is a performance issue. When people are depleted, even well-designed initiatives slow down, go sideways, or quietly die. And that’s a big reason why MIT’s research showed that 95 percent of AI initiatives are failing.

Why coping skills need to come first

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Most change playbooks assume your workforce has the bandwidth to learn, adapt, and problem-solve. But change saturation puts people into survival mode. Uncertainty is processed by the brain as a threat; attention narrows, and complex decision-making gets harder.

Most change playbooks assume your workforce has the bandwidth to learn, adapt, and problem-solve. But change saturation puts people into survival mode. Uncertainty is processed by the brain as a threat; attention narrows, and complex decision-making gets harder.

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So, when employees are already exhausted and anxious, asking them to “lean in” to AI adoption or large-scale reorganizations can land as tone-deaf. It’s not that they don’t care; they simply can’t.

So, when employees are already exhausted and anxious, asking them to “lean in” to AI adoption or large-scale reorganizations can land as tone-deaf. It’s not that they don’t care; they simply can’t.

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This is why resilience-building is the prerequisite. For example, a cross-sectional study of healthcare practitioners found that emotional intelligence was strongly correlated with resilience (r = 0.626) and moderately correlated with stress management (r = 0.624). In plain English: When people are better at noticing and working with emotions, they tend to cope better under pressure.

This is why resilience-building is the prerequisite. For example, a cross-sectional study of healthcare practitioners found that emotional intelligence was strongly correlated with resilience (r = 0.626) and moderately correlated with stress management (r = 0.624). In plain English: When people are better at noticing and working with emotions, they tend to cope better under pressure.

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Resilience training doesn’t remove hard realities, whether dealing with tight timelines, shifting roles, or nonstop pivots. Rather, it restores agency. When people can name what they feel, reframe stressors, and recover from setbacks faster, they stop drowning and start swimming.

Resilience training doesn’t remove hard realities, whether dealing with tight timelines, shifting roles, or nonstop pivots. Rather, it restores agency. When people can name what they feel, reframe stressors, and recover from setbacks faster, they stop drowning and start swimming.

What resilience looks like at work

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Resilience is not “positive vibes.” It’s a set of skills people can use in the middle of a Tuesday. At a minimum, resilience programs should help leaders and teams:

Resilience is not “positive vibes.” It’s a set of skills people can use in the middle of a Tuesday. At a minimum, resilience programs should help leaders and teams:

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  Notice stress signals early (before burnout becomes disengagement).

  Notice stress signals early (before burnout becomes disengagement).

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  Regulate emotions in real time (so tension doesn’t become culture).

  Regulate emotions in real time (so tension doesn’t become culture).

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  Reframe uncertainty (so the brain doesn’t treat every change as an emergency).

  Reframe uncertainty (so the brain doesn’t treat every change as an emergency).

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  Support others through disruption (because resilience is social).

  Support others through disruption (because resilience is social).

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In a recent discussion, one of our clients captured the modern reality: The old change curve is dead. Now, it’s become a compounding change curve in which people “never get out of the valley of despair.” The goal isn’t to deny the valley. It’s to give people a ladder.

In a recent discussion, one of our clients captured the modern reality: The old change curve is dead. Now, it’s become a compounding change curve in which people “never get out of the valley of despair.” The goal isn’t to deny the valley. It’s to give people a ladder.

Then plan the future—human-first

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Once people can breathe again, change planning becomes possible (and much more effective). That’s when leaders should shift to proactive change design:

Once people can breathe again, change planning becomes possible (and much more effective). That’s when leaders should shift to proactive change design:

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  Map the emotional journey of each initiative (where will anxiety spike, where will confusion show up, where might hope build?).

  Map the emotional journey of each initiative (where will anxiety spike, where will confusion show up, where might hope build?).

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  Sequence projects to avoid overwhelming the same audience repeatedly.

  Sequence projects to avoid overwhelming the same audience repeatedly.

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  Build in real recovery time, if at all possible. While it may seem difficult to do, the risk of burnout may do more damage.

  Build in real recovery time, if at all possible. While it may seem difficult to do, the risk of burnout may do more damage.

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  Create feedback loops so people can surface friction early.

  Create feedback loops so people can surface friction early.

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  Involve employees in co-creating solutions, so change isn’t just “done to them.”

  Involve employees in co-creating solutions, so change isn’t just “done to them.”

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In other words, align your transformation roadmap with human capacity, so innovation doesn’t outpace the people who have to implement it.

In other words, align your transformation roadmap with human capacity, so innovation doesn’t outpace the people who have to implement it.

A practical call to action

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If your organization is serious about AI (or any disruptive shift), start with an honest audit: How many enterprise-level changes are your teams navigating right now? Where is fatigue showing up: turnover, slower delivery, more mistakes, disengaged meetings?

If your organization is serious about AI (or any disruptive shift), start with an honest audit: How many enterprise-level changes are your teams navigating right now? Where is fatigue showing up: turnover, slower delivery, more mistakes, disengaged meetings?

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Then do the thing leaders often skip: Build resilience skills first. It becomes the stabilizing force that enables leaders and their teams to deal with the instability ahead.

Then do the thing leaders often skip: Build resilience skills first. It becomes the stabilizing force that enables leaders and their teams to deal with the instability ahead.

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After all, your change strategy is only as strong as the nervous systems executing it.

After all, your change strategy is only as strong as the nervous systems executing it.