ATD Blog
Getting Started on the Right Hoof in a VUCA World
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You can address VUCA challenges not just by learning from other humans, but also by learning from horses.
You can address VUCA challenges not just by learning from other humans, but also by learning from horses.
Tue Jan 06 2026
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The new year often represents a fresh start, with the promise of doing better and being better by applying lessons learned from the previous year. However, no matter how much we try to plan our personal and professional lives, we know that each new year will bring a series of disruptive, often unpredictable challenges.
The new year often represents a fresh start, with the promise of doing better and being better by applying lessons learned from the previous year. However, no matter how much we try to plan our personal and professional lives, we know that each new year will bring a series of disruptive, often unpredictable challenges.
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A continuous challenge in this VUCA ( V olatile, U ncertain, C omplex, and A mbiguous) world will be for leaders to create a sense of stability and to take action that inspires trust and confidence from their team members. We can address these challenges not just by learning from other humans, but also by learning from horses.
A continuous challenge in this VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous) world will be for leaders to create a sense of stability and to take action that inspires trust and confidence from their team members. We can address these challenges not just by learning from other humans, but also by learning from horses.
Wisdom From Horses
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For centuries, wild horses have navigated uncertain terrain and operated under a system of shared leadership where there are no formal ranks, but instead strategically positioned roles: the front lead mare, the back lead stallion, and the sentinels on each side, that collectively contribute to the safety of the whole herd from their unique angles.
For centuries, wild horses have navigated uncertain terrain and operated under a system of shared leadership where there are no formal ranks, but instead strategically positioned roles: the front lead mare, the back lead stallion, and the sentinels on each side, that collectively contribute to the safety of the whole herd from their unique angles.
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The observation of these roles in the horse herd led June Gunter, founder of TeachingHorse™, a leadership development company in North Carolina, to create the Diamond Model of Leadership, a robust framework using four capabilities essential for building confidence and agility in your team, mirroring what horses require from their leaders to navigate constant disruption. Lisa Gary, of Nautilus Leadership , recently shared this framework and ideas for application with ATD Forum members.
The observation of these roles in the horse herd led June Gunter, founder of TeachingHorse™, a leadership development company in North Carolina, to create the Diamond Model of Leadership, a robust framework using four capabilities essential for building confidence and agility in your team, mirroring what horses require from their leaders to navigate constant disruption. Lisa Gary, of Nautilus Leadership, recently shared this framework and ideas for application with ATD Forum members.
The Diamond Model of Shared Leadership: Four Capabilities for Uncertainty
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Attention
Attention
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In a volatile world, you must first notice what is happening. Attention involves using all your senses to see yourself, others, and the environment.
In a volatile world, you must first notice what is happening. Attention involves using all your senses to see yourself, others, and the environment.
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Horse Herd Parallel: Leaders must be able to detect even the most subtle shifts in the environment.
Horse Herd Parallel: Leaders must be able to detect even the most subtle shifts in the environment.
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Human Application: As a leader, you must be aware of your team’s concerns, your own inner state, and the subtle changes in the market. This capability enables course correction and prevents being blindsided.
Human Application: As a leader, you must be aware of your team’s concerns, your own inner state, and the subtle changes in the market. This capability enables course correction and prevents being blindsided.
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Direction
Direction
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When the path is uncertain, the herd needs a point of focus. Direction involves choosing that focus and taking a step forward. A critical skill here is “focus flex,” the ability to balance the next immediate step with the long-term horizon.
When the path is uncertain, the herd needs a point of focus. Direction involves choosing that focus and taking a step forward. A critical skill here is “focus flex,” the ability to balance the next immediate step with the long-term horizon.
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Horse Herd Parallel: The lead mare sets the direction and pace for the whole herd.
Horse Herd Parallel: The lead mare sets the direction and pace for the whole herd.
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Human Application: Leaders must make decisions quickly and give clear direction. When confused or uncertain, the recommendation is to practice recentering and refocusing on the direction you have set.
Human Application: Leaders must make decisions quickly and give clear direction. When confused or uncertain, the recommendation is to practice recentering and refocusing on the direction you have set.
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Energy
Energy
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In a volatile situation, the leader’s energy dictates the herd’s response. Energy means you have control over your personal and organizational focus. The leader sets the pace, names the energy present, and shifts it to create a positive result.
In a volatile situation, the leader’s energy dictates the herd’s response. Energy means you have control over your personal and organizational focus. The leader sets the pace, names the energy present, and shifts it to create a positive result.
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Horse Herd Parallel: The back lead stallion provides energy and protection, supporting the pace set by the mare.
Horse Herd Parallel: The back lead stallion provides energy and protection, supporting the pace set by the mare.
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Human Application: Trust that if you change your energy, you can change the outcome in a positive direction. This is about being deliberate in your demeanor and setting a pace that matches the current reality, neither overreacting nor underreacting.
Human Application: Trust that if you change your energy, you can change the outcome in a positive direction. This is about being deliberate in your demeanor and setting a pace that matches the current reality, neither overreacting nor underreacting.
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Congruence
Congruence
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This is arguably the most essential element for building trust in an ambiguous world. Congruence involves aligning your inner and outer expression. It is about using your authentic voice to increase trust and confidence in your leadership.
This is arguably the most essential element for building trust in an ambiguous world. Congruence involves aligning your inner and outer expression. It is about using your authentic voice to increase trust and confidence in your leadership.
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Horse Herd Parallel: Horses are masterful at sensing congruence; if a leader’s inner motivation does not match the outer action, the herd will not follow. Ultimately, the herd must know the leaders have their best interests at heart.
Horse Herd Parallel: Horses are masterful at sensing congruence; if a leader’s inner motivation does not match the outer action, the herd will not follow. Ultimately, the herd must know the leaders have their best interests at heart.
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Human Application: Your team needs to trust that your inner goals and motivation are aligned with what is best for the group. Lack of congruence is a fast track to disillusionment and loss of trust in your leadership.
Human Application: Your team needs to trust that your inner goals and motivation are aligned with what is best for the group. Lack of congruence is a fast track to disillusionment and loss of trust in your leadership.
Counteracting VUCA With VUCA Prime
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The Diamond Model’s focus on Attention, Direction, Energy, and Congruence provides a skillset for confident, shared leadership. It works in powerful synergy with another framework explicitly designed to counteract the challenges of the VUCA world: VUCA Prime. Developed by Bob Johansen of The Institute for the Future, VUCA Prime reframes each negative challenge into a positive leadership response.
The Diamond Model’s focus on Attention, Direction, Energy, and Congruence provides a skillset for confident, shared leadership. It works in powerful synergy with another framework explicitly designed to counteract the challenges of the VUCA world: VUCA Prime. Developed by Bob Johansen of The Institute for the Future, VUCA Prime reframes each negative challenge into a positive leadership response.
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The horse herd’s wisdom inherently embodies the qualities of VUCA Prime. Their constant Attention provides the Understanding needed to counter uncertainty. Their clear Direction provides the necessary Vision in a volatile world. Their shared system of roles—where leadership is not always from the front—gives them the Clarity that counters Complexity and the collective Agility to respond to Ambiguity .
The horse herd’s wisdom inherently embodies the qualities of VUCA Prime. Their constant Attention provides the Understanding needed to counter uncertainty. Their clear Direction provides the necessary Vision in a volatile world. Their shared system of roles—where leadership is not always from the front—gives them the Clarity that counters Complexity and the collective Agility to respond to Ambiguity.
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The ultimate lesson from the horse herd is that effective leadership in uncertainty is a shared team effort that prioritizes the collective good. Every member is clear on their role, and leadership can emerge from any angle—front, middle, or behind.
The ultimate lesson from the horse herd is that effective leadership in uncertainty is a shared team effort that prioritizes the collective good. Every member is clear on their role, and leadership can emerge from any angle—front, middle, or behind.
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To lead confidently in our own VUCA world, we must commit to the four capabilities of the Diamond Model:
To lead confidently in our own VUCA world, we must commit to the four capabilities of the Diamond Model:
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Pay Attention to the subtle shifts in yourself, your team, and your environment.
Pay Attention to the subtle shifts in yourself, your team, and your environment.
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Set a clear Direction , balancing the immediate step with the long-term vision.
Set a clear Direction, balancing the immediate step with the long-term vision.
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Control and align your Energy to set a focused, appropriate pace.
Control and align your Energy to set a focused, appropriate pace.
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Act with Congruence , ensuring your actions match your authentic intentions to build trust.
Act with Congruence, ensuring your actions match your authentic intentions to build trust.
Take Time to Huddle With Your Herd
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Set aside time to discuss your roles in relation to the Diamond Model capabilities and reframe elements of VUCA to VUCA Prime. Below are some questions you can use for individual and team reflection.
Set aside time to discuss your roles in relation to the Diamond Model capabilities and reframe elements of VUCA to VUCA Prime. Below are some questions you can use for individual and team reflection.
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Which element of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, or Ambiguity) do we feel most challenged by right now as a team or organization?
Which element of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, or Ambiguity) do we feel most challenged by right now as a team or organization?
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Which of the VUCA Prime skills ( Vision, Understanding, Clarity, Agility ) do we need to focus on modeling more consistently as a leadership group?
Which of the VUCA Prime skills (Vision, Understanding, Clarity, Agility) do we need to focus on modeling more consistently as a leadership group?
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Direction/Vision: As a team, how clear is our Direction (our next step) and our long-term Vision (the horizon)?
Direction/Vision: As a team, how clear is our Direction (our next step) and our long-term Vision (the horizon)?
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Attention: Are we aware of what our teammates are noticing, or just what we see in a given circumstance? How can we better share information from “the sides” of our operation?
Attention: Are we aware of what our teammates are noticing, or just what we see in a given circumstance? How can we better share information from “the sides” of our operation?
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Energy: When stress or complexity arises, how do we, as individuals and as a team, set the pace and shift the Energy to create a positive result?
Energy: When stress or complexity arises, how do we, as individuals and as a team, set the pace and shift the Energy to create a positive result?
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Congruence: On a scale of 1 to 10, how congruent is our team’s stated mission with our day-to-day actions? What is one specific thing we can do to use our authentic voice to increase trust and confidence in our leadership (personal and collective)?
Congruence: On a scale of 1 to 10, how congruent is our team’s stated mission with our day-to-day actions? What is one specific thing we can do to use our authentic voice to increase trust and confidence in our leadership (personal and collective)?
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One Key Action: Based on this discussion, what is one commitment (a behavior or process) we will adopt immediately to lead more like the successful horse herd? (For example, “We will start every meeting with five minutes of ‘Sentinel’ feedback on what is changing in our environment.”)
One Key Action: Based on this discussion, what is one commitment (a behavior or process) we will adopt immediately to lead more like the successful horse herd? (For example, “We will start every meeting with five minutes of ‘Sentinel’ feedback on what is changing in our environment.”)
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By embracing the lessons of the horse herd and committing to the principles of Attention, Direction, Energy, and Congruence, we can transform the challenges of a VUCA world into an opportunity for agile, confident, and collective leadership.
By embracing the lessons of the horse herd and committing to the principles of Attention, Direction, Energy, and Congruence, we can transform the challenges of a VUCA world into an opportunity for agile, confident, and collective leadership.